DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advise. Trading derivatives involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
This week there are two main trades under the same umbrella thesis I will be stalking. This is the week after FOMC and several other central banks have said their peace, I am looking for their actions to be priced in.
The 10Y will likely be a key indicator for the markets behavior this week, as it has been in the weeks prior.
There are a few central bank speakers this week likely to elaborate on comments made last week.
Here are the primary trades I am stalking:
The equity indices are presenting opportunity for the weekly single time framing to end in ES. (ES - Double Top/RTY - Higher High Turning/YM- Higher High Turning/NQ - Lower High)
Tech seems to be what is holding us down, yet I suspect the other sectors are due for a shift lower here giving ES scope for an overall shift lower.
As I see it, the ES currently sits in a holding pattern at a key inflection, and the direction from this area should set the tone for the next one to two weeks.
This range between 3885-3905 creates a balance area that will be KEY for identifying the next shift. One of my favorite situations would be a push higher early in the week that fails, thus creating a failed breakout of that balance. This would provide the short opportunity with conviction.
Until we hold outside this band I really have nothing to conclude, yet, I am convinced this shift in value will be the shift that sets the tone for the weeks to come.
This market should have been strong last week. It had so many chances to go bid and squeeze the shorts in this large range and has remained relatively stagnant. Given its failure to go bid even during periods of expansion for silver, I am looking for continued failure lower this week. Wrong if we take 1740s again.